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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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