A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
