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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in the coming year.

There is never truly break for leaders. In the hour before our chat started, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our interview, which was far more extended than typical, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

With the year commences, Starmer appears to have had something of a reboot. Perhaps even just some relaxation with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have left him in improved morale than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the prime minister is that a significant number of his fellow MPs believe he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would rather gamble and remove him in 2026.

However Sir Keir was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "assessed at the poll", insisting no one would strip his term from him – even if the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I plan to lead us," he declared.

The Spring Test

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged long before then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to argue, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – up to a point. But even though he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to account for his unpopularity by saying the public was understandably eager for things to get better. He sought to assure me, and the nation, that this year would be different.

The economy would recover despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government enacted during their first turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't put a firm date on that.
• He added too, with the qualification that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His central message is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have communicated with renewed vitality than observed from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with increased political direction, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.

Given that he is in considerable political trouble, is a different approach required a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when past remarks he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer blamed "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political perils as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be comfortable with these events seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long champion of international law" but we "just haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Opponents demanded criticise the action prior to we spoke. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has consistently been simmering tension in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's pursuing that, but his new firmer plan to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European market – will likely trigger accusations that he is reneging on his promise never to try to overturn the decisions that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will please some on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to